Friday, August 27, 2010

The opposite of truth is just as good as truth

One one of the Polish political blogs I've recently stumbled on a quote from a book written by Viktor Suvorov, a former member of the Soviet secret special-ops forces called Spetsnaz, who defected to the UK:
The most important thing is to confuse the enemy. If the operation is done with lots of Spetsnaz units, you pretend that there's really just a few of them. If the forces you're using are small, you should make the operation look large. (...) Suppose a Spetsnaz unit is to destroy a number of targets, all of them situated more or less on a straight line and in a densely populated area (for example, a pipeline, a power supply line, a highway, a few bridges, etc.). In such situation, the detonators on the explosives placed first are set to long delay, and then that delay should get shorter and shorter on the devices placed later on. In this way, the timing of the explosions will be opposite to the direction along which the unit was marching. If the unit was traveling from East to West, the explosions will start on the West first and then move Eastwards, deceiving the enemy into thinking that the unit was traveling Eastwards as well.
Now if this is actually how Spetsnaz went about deceiving the enemy then they were in dire need of an intro to game theory class. The deception strategy of telling the exact opposite of the truth can only work once; if you repeat it, your enemy will quickly catch on to what you're doing and you might as well tell them the truth outright. How long do you think you'd last in a poker game if you made large bets every time your hand was weak, and small bets every time your hand was strong? The only deception strategy that is viable in the long run is to behave in a way that does not exhibit any discernible patterns. In other words, randomly.

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