Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Binomial nitpicking

Kids Prefer Cheese gives a link to a really funny Sheen-Gadhaffi Quiz, and then says:
I got a 4 out of 10, worse than random.
This is a little bit, what's the best way to put it, wrong.

There's ten questions with two possible answers each, so probability of getting any one of them right by chance is one-half. Ergo, probability that choosing answers via coin flip will get you four or less correct picks is 0.38 (with n = 10 and p = 0.5, cumulative binomial(4) = 0.38). No way can you reject the null.

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