Fiat pax in virtute tua

I had no idea that a natural language could have an actual assignment operator (that is, something like e.g. "LET x = 10" or "x <- 10" in programming languages), until I've discovered than Latin does. It's done through the word fiat. So, for example, "Thy will be done" is fiat voluntas tua, and "let there be light" is fiat lux. I like that a lot.

(You might object that this isn't really assignment since it seems to be just saying "LET x" as opposed to "LET x = y". But it is; it's just that, as is usually the case with natural languages, a lot is left implicit. For example, what fiat lux is really saying is something like "LET new state of the world = old state of the world + light".)

Worshipping numbers

Some people worship numbers. Paradoxically, number-worshippers are bad with numbers. Because they are so bad with them, they’re unable to critically evaluate claims that involve numbers. You can make them believe almost any idiocy, as long as you use lots of made-up or otherwise incorrect numbers in the course of selling it to them.

Some time ago in the UK there was a criminal trial in which the defendant was a mother accused of killing her two babies. Her defense was that both her babies died of the sudden infant death syndrome. Prosecution called an expert witness, a pediatrician, who testified that, since studies show that the risk of a sudden infant death syndrome occurring in a family similar to the defendant’s is 1 in 8,500, the likelihood of two such deaths occurring in one family is 1 in 73 million. Because the prosecution, the jury, the judge, and the defense were all number-worshippers, this idiotic claim went completely unchallenged. He’s talking numbers. He must be right.

The defendant’s conviction was later overturned on appeal in which it was shown that the expert’s probability claim was completely bogus. Statisticians and health researchers have shown that, first, the assumption of independence is totally unwarranted, and second, that the original calculation involved unconditional probabilities where conditional probabilities should have been used instead. But there is a far simpler reason why this calculation is ridiculous. In order to see this reason, you don’t even have to be good with numbers or know much about probabilities. All you need is a mind that thinks and does not worship numbers. One of the journalists reporting the initial trial saw it right away. Wait a minute, he said, are you telling me that the probability that this woman is innocent is 1 in 73 million? Surely this can’t be right. A great majority of mothers whose babies die did not murder them. But when, instead of thinking, you worship numbers, such simple truths are inaccessible to you. So you can wield your sanctimonious judgment on innocent people with a clear conscience.

(In this video you can learn about the details of the trial.)

My dear Mr. Babbage

I am very much obliged to you for sending me cards for your parties, but I am afraid of accepting them, for I should meet some people there, to whom I have sworn by all the saints in Heaven, I never go out.

(Charles Darwin to Charles Babbage.)

If correlation implied causation

(Source of data is NationMaster.)

Algebra-shmalgebra

If you have a fever, throw away the thermometer. Yeah, that sounds like a good idea.

Edit: Here is the best rebuke of this ridiculous op-ed that I've found.

Warum hast du Angst vor mir?

I was taking my three-year-old Polish Lowland Sheepdog for a night walk. There was a middle-aged woman walking our way on the sidewalk; she was pushing a shopping cart filled with plastic bags filled with stuff. When she was passing me, my dog got really nervous. She's naturally wary of all strangers, and did not like the woman at all; she moved across the sidewalk to be as far away from the woman as possible. Seeing which, the woman said, 'Why are you afraid of me?' Only, she said it in German. (The translation is this post's title, in case you were wondering.) Which for some reason totally floored me. Only in New York, I thought quite nonsensically.

When I relayed the incident to my wife, she said, 'Well, she is a Polish sheepdog after all, so no wonder she's afraid of Germans.'

Gimme 30

George Dvorsky writes:

Dave Asprey, the Bulletproof Executive, claims that his IQ was raised 30 points by taking creatine and going through Dual N-Back training exercises.

This is one of my smaller pet peeves: talking about IQ scores as though the scale was linear. Increasing IQ from 100 to 130 means an increase from 1 in 2 to 1 in 44, whereas increasing it from 130 to 160 means a jump from 1 in 44 to 1 in 32,000. Another 30 points and you're 1 in a million.

For any belief there's a quote supporting it

A hipster clothing store in the East Village posted a chalk-board sign outside their door with a quote from Hemingway: "In order to write about life, you must live it first!" Or something to that effect.

I guess neither Hemingway nor the staff of the hipster clothing store in the East Village have ever heard of Marcel Proust. You know, the guy who is a direct counter-example to the above quote.

It's official now: Everything is related

I just finished watching the British movie trilogy Red Riding. In the first part there's a scene where a young journalist who's prone to seeing conspiracies everywhere, while talking to his buddy in a bar, says 'Everything is related; show me just two things that aren't related.' His friend replies, 'City and the fucking championship.'

It's good for you, in that it will make you immortal

This article is a great example of how dumb science reporting can get. A quote:

Coffee-drinking men cut their risk for death by 12 percent after four to five cups of java, according to the study, which was led by the National Institutes of Health's Neal Freedman.

So if I drink 42 cups, I'll cut my risk for death to 0%. Sounds like a good deal to me. Studies such as this one usually define "risk of X" as "risk that X occurs during the duration of the study," which would make the claim that coffee reduces the risk of dying by whatever percent make a lot more sense. But the moron who chose to summarize the study didn't think details like that were important. Next quote:

The report sparked some confusion, too, as coffee drinkers were also puzzlingly more -- yes, more -- likely to die. The reason? Coffee drinkers are also generally smokers. How can coffee drinkers can be both more and less likely to die seems like an arithmetic mystery -- but cut out smoking altogether, and the correlation between coffee and longer lives still stands.

Sure, if you're a dimwit, this could indeed "spark some confusion." So the fact that drinking coffee reduces the risk of death when controlling for smoking, but is correlated with higher risk of death when smoking is not controlled for, "seems like an arithmetic mystery" to you. And you write about science.

Elevator wisdom

One of those elevator screens that show snippets of news has made me aware that there's a Generation Z now. The Generation Naming Committee is not showing great foresight here. Can't wait to see what they're going to name the next one.

Best opening sentence in a work of fiction

That I have ever read, at least.

One morning, as Gregor Samsa was waking up from anxious dreams, he discovered that in his bed he had been changed into a monstrous verminous bug.

Makes you want to keep reading doesn't it.

A very cheap way to make your life just a tiny bit better

Subscribe to the RSS feed of The Onion. The benefits of seeing a subject line like the one below in your inbox are many.

Shadows Meet The Clouds, Gray On Gray, Like Dusty Charcoal On An Ashen Brow, Nation's Poets Report.

Quite mesmerizing

Another short video by Cristobal Vila, this one about the ubiquity of the Fibonacci Series and The Golden Ratio in nature:

Wouldn't you wish your work space looked like this?

So would M. C. Escher.

(HT: God Plays Dice.)

I am whatever I say I am

When someone says "I am an X kind of person," the value of X is usually a lie. Oftentimes, however, it's informative as to what the truth is. For example, sometimes it's wishful thinking, in which case if you ask yourself "What kind of person would want to be X?" you'll be on the right track.

A sentimental journey back in time

Any time I visit a post office to do anything more trivial than buy a book of stamps, get checked at the airport by TSA officers, or deal with the immigration office in any capacity, I get a visceral reminder of my childhood days. Seeing as I grew up in Poland under communist dictatorship, this is not a good thing.

Overheard in Washington Square Park

"And then you become your own Goebbels."

Fuck me, that would be a horrible fate indeed. To all my friends: if you ever notice me muttering strange things to myself and if in my ramblings you can distinctly recognize words like Herrenvolk or Lebensraum, please let me know I need help.

A lighthearted prank with a dark side

The video below is a funny little prank that, on second viewing, is much less funny. Watch the slow motion part, and keep in mind that these girls are friends and roommates. The first girl out the door is desperately trying to shut it in her friends' faces. The second girl pushes the third one out of her way to get to the door faster. Female friendship.

Like taking candy from a kid

If you haven't felt homicidal fury in a really long while, watch this video.