Thursday, July 5, 2012

It's good for you, in that it will make you immortal

This article is a great example of how dumb science reporting can get. A quote:
Coffee-drinking men cut their risk for death by 12 percent after four to five cups of java, according to the study, which was led by the National Institutes of Health's Neal Freedman.
So if I drink 42 cups, I'll cut my risk for death to 0%. Sounds like a good deal to me. Studies such as this one usually define "risk of X" as "risk that X occurs during the duration of the study," which would make the claim that coffee reduces the risk of dying by whatever percent make a lot more sense. But the moron who chose to summarize the study didn't think details like that were important. Next quote:
The report sparked some confusion, too, as coffee drinkers were also puzzlingly more -- yes, more -- likely to die. The reason? Coffee drinkers are also generally smokers. How can coffee drinkers can be both more and less likely to die seems like an arithmetic mystery -- but cut out smoking altogether, and the correlation between coffee and longer lives still stands.
Sure, if you're a dimwit, this could indeed "spark some confusion." So the fact that drinking coffee reduces the risk of death when controlling for smoking, but is correlated with higher risk of death when smoking is not controlled for, "seems like an arithmetic mystery" to you. And you write about science.

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